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In 2015, a prolific outbreak of mosquito-borne Dengue Fever

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struck Southeast Asia. In fact, something was causing outbreaks to pop up all over the world.

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So, what happened?

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Two to three months earlier, the ocean water in the equatorial 

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Pacific began to dramatically warm-up resulting in a cascading series

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of events that eventually lead to disease outbreaks worldwide. 

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This warming event is commonly known as El Nino.

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The same El Nino that causes heavy rainfall in some parts of the world 

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and droughts in others, the 2015-2016 El Nino was the strongest seen in the last 50 years. 

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Here’s what happened: 

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The El Nino-Southern Oscillation began showing signs of warming in early 2015. 

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That led to changes in rainfall worldwide which directly impacted land surface temperatures across all continents. 

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In the case of Southeast Asia, the region actually got less than average rain

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which caused the surface of the land to heat up and therefore produce drier conditions. 

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That drew mosquitoes into populated, urban areas containing open water they needed for laying eggs. 

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As the air warmed, mosquitoes grew hungrier and reached sexual maturity faster

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…which meant more mosquito bites.

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The purple columns represent reported incidents of Dengue Fever. 

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Mosquito-borne epidemics have a lag time of two to three months following these weather changes 

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which is why the Dengue Amplification Period kicks in several months after land temperature begins heating up. 

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The good news? 

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Seasonal forecasts are an early warning system with the real potential to save lives. 

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With an assist from scientists, countries can take strategic measures to prevent disease outbreaks 

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…especially when they know they’re coming. 

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