1 00:00:00,010 --> 00:00:04,220 Huffman: Late in the summer, moisture starts coming up 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:08,390 the west coast of Mexico and entering the southwestern U.S. And you transition 3 00:00:08,410 --> 00:00:12,460 from a relatively dry early season to something that's more prone to 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:16,640 thunderstorms and the attendant flash floods. Relatively small amounts 5 00:00:16,660 --> 00:00:20,830 of rain in a desert condition can lead to a flash flood, even 6 00:00:20,850 --> 00:00:25,020 if it's a long way away. The ground is not very good at absorbing water and so 7 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:29,220 instead it very quickly runs off and can run down channels for miles, perhaps catching 8 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:33,420 people unaware. 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,460 10 00:00:37,480 --> 00:00:41,630 11 00:00:41,650 --> 00:00:45,810 Huffman: In a general sort of way, 12 00:00:45,830 --> 00:00:49,900 we know that it rains in the summer and doesn't rain the rest of the year. But, the 13 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,080 question is: Is it strong or is it weak? These kinds of long-range forecasts 14 00:00:54,100 --> 00:00:58,280 are still quite challenging. Even at the shorter scale, the monsoon 15 00:00:58,300 --> 00:01:02,480 consists of what are called breaks and then surges. And being able to forecast 16 00:01:02,500 --> 00:01:06,670 those breaks and surges a few days or weeks in advance would be a really 17 00:01:06,690 --> 00:01:10,840 great thing. There's a certain capability to do that now, but if we 18 00:01:10,860 --> 00:01:15,030 understand the precipitation processes better that will give us a better handle on 19 00:01:15,050 --> 00:01:19,220 how the heat is released in the dynamical systems that are 20 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:23,260 contributing to the breaks and surges. 21 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,333