1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:03:24,120 2 00:03:24,140 --> 00:03:28,210 2015 was a scorcher of a year in the instrumental record. 3 00:03:28,230 --> 00:03:32,140 It was very, very clearly the warmest year by a long chalk. 4 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,050 2014 was also a record year, but only by a little bit. 5 00:03:35,070 --> 00:03:38,150 But 2015 has totally knocked that into the grass. 6 00:03:38,170 --> 00:03:45,150 The temperatures are about 1.8 Fahrenheit above what it was in the 19th century, and 7 00:03:45,170 --> 00:03:53,140 that's about halfway to the target that the UN Climate Talks have identified as the 8 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:59,180 target we should be avoiding if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 9 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,050 10 00:04:01,070 --> 00:04:07,030 This record year really is just emphasizing the fact that there is a very, very strong 11 00:04:07,050 --> 00:04:12,090 long-term trend in temperature that we have associated very strongly with the 12 00:04:12,110 --> 00:04:15,060 human emissions of greenhouse gases. 13 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:19,010 14 00:04:19,030 --> 00:04:23,270 While one degree might not mean very much to you basically on a daily cycle, 15 00:04:23,290 --> 00:04:26,140 it really gets noticed by the planet and the systems on the planet. 16 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:31,090 Glaciers notice that the planet is more than a degree warmer than it is. 17 00:04:31,110 --> 00:04:35,170 We've seen glaciers retreat almost everywhere where there are glaciers on the planet. 18 00:04:35,190 --> 00:04:39,210 We've seen shifts in eco-zones, so where ecosystems are happiest 19 00:04:39,230 --> 00:04:45,200 these have been moving poleward and upward over the decades, and that's going to continue. 20 00:04:45,220 --> 00:04:48,150 21 00:04:48,170 --> 00:04:54,190 We're currently in a big El Nino event, and that's going to persist through the spring 22 00:04:54,210 --> 00:04:55,120 and perhaps into the summer. 23 00:04:55,140 --> 00:04:58,100 2016 is going to start off very, very warm as well, and in fact, 24 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:03,180 it might be as warm as 2015 going through the rest of the year. 25 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:08,020 We actually anticipate that 2016 might also be a record warm year, and that will be the 26 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:19,299 first time that we've had three record warm years in a row in the whole record.