WEBVTT FILE 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:07.430 2 00:00:07.450 --> 00:00:10.750 2015 was a scorcher of a year in the instrumental record. 3 00:00:10.770 --> 00:00:14.510 It was very, very clearly the warmest year by a long chalk. 4 00:00:14.530 --> 00:00:18.220 2014 was also a record year. but only by a little bit. 5 00:00:18.240 --> 00:00:21.540 But 2015 has totally knocked that into the grass. 6 00:00:21.560 --> 00:00:27.560 The temperatures are about 1.8 Fahrenheit above what it was in the 19th century, and 7 00:00:27.580 --> 00:00:36.500 that's about halfway to the target that the UN Climate Talks have identified as the 8 00:00:36.520 --> 00:00:41.980 target we should be avoiding if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 9 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:48.508 10 00:00:48.528 --> 00:00:50.220 11 00:00:50.240 --> 00:00:55.140 This record year really is just emphasizing the fact that there is a very, very strong 12 00:00:55.160 --> 00:00:59.360 long-term trend in temperature that we have associated very strongly with the 13 00:00:59.380 --> 00:01:02.240 human emissions of greenhouse gases. 14 00:01:02.260 --> 00:01:11.080 15 00:01:11.100 --> 00:01:15.940 While one degree might not mean very much to you basically on a daily cycle, 16 00:01:15.960 --> 00:01:19.530 it really gets noticed by the planet and the systems on the planet. 17 00:01:19.550 --> 00:01:23.360 Glaciers notice that the planet is more than a degree warmer than it is. 18 00:01:23.380 --> 00:01:27.600 We've seen glaciers retreat almost everywhere where there are glaciers on the planet. 19 00:01:27.620 --> 00:01:31.750 We've seen shifts in eco-zones, so where ecosystems are happiest 20 00:01:31.770 --> 00:01:36.740 these have been moving poleward and upward over the decades, 21 00:01:36.760 --> 00:01:37.710 and that's going to continue. 22 00:01:37.730 --> 00:01:46.550 23 00:01:46.570 --> 00:01:50.670 We're currently in a big El Nino event, and that's going to persist through the spring 24 00:01:50.690 --> 00:01:53.430 and perhaps into the summer. 25 00:01:53.450 --> 00:01:56.380 2016 is going to start off very. very warm as well. and in fact. 26 00:01:56.400 --> 00:02:01.640 it might be as warm as 2015 going through the rest of the year. 27 00:02:01.660 --> 00:02:06.120 We actually anticipate that 2016 might also be a record warm year, and that will be the 28 00:02:06.140 --> 00:02:11.120 first time that we've had three record warm years in a row in the whole record. 29 00:02:11.140 --> 00:02:18.119 30 00:02:18.139 --> 00:02:19.210 31 00:02:19.230 --> 00:02:23.290 When NASA first started talking about global warming, it was in 1988. 32 00:02:23.310 --> 00:02:25.890 1988 was also a record year. 33 00:02:25.910 --> 00:02:32.890 But with the record in now for 2015, 1988 is not even in the top 20 of warmest years. 34 00:02:32.910 --> 00:02:35.069