Shifting Distribution of Land Temperature Anomalies, 1951-2020
- Visualizations by:
- Mark SubbaRao
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Movies
- GISTempDist_1080p30.mp4 (1920x1080) [2.0 MB]
- GISTempDist_1080p30.webm (1920x1080) [3.3 MB]
- GISSTempDist_2160p59.94.mp4 (3840x2160) [4.9 MB]
Images
- GISSTempDist_print.jpg (1024x576) [53.1 KB]
- GISSTempDist_STILL.jpg (7680x4320) [1.0 MB]
- GISTempDist_thm.png (71x40) [2.1 KB]
- GISTempDist_searchweb.png (320x180) [13.6 KB]
Frames
- frames/3840x2160_16x9_60p/ (3840x2160) [64.0 KB]
The change in the distribution of land temperature anomalies over the years 1951 to 2020
These distributions are calculated from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies GISTEMP surface temperature analysis. Distributions are determined for each year using a kernal density esitmator, and we morph between those distributions in the animation.
NASA’s full surface temperature data set – and the complete methodology used to make the temperature calculation – are available at: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.
The python based Jupyter Notebook used to create these visualizations is available. Click here to download.

Images
- GISSTempRidgeline_print.jpg (1024x576) [92.3 KB]
- GISSTempRidgeline_1080.png (1920x1080) [184.0 KB]
- GISSTempRidgeline_2160.png (3840x2160) [416.4 KB]
- GISSTempRidgeline_STILL.png (7680x4320) [992.5 KB]
- GISSTempRidgeline_thm.png (80x40) [3.9 KB]
- GISSTempRidgeline_searchweb.png (320x180) [18.9 KB]
A ridgeline plot showing how the land temperature anomaly distribution has changed over seven decades
Credits
Please give credit for this item to:
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio
Visualizer
- Mark SubbaRao (NASA/GSFC) [Lead]
Scientists
- Gavin A. Schmidt (NASA/GSFC GISS)
- Helga (Kikki) Kleiven (University of Bergen)
Project support
- Leann Johnson (GST)
Technical support
- Ian Jones (ADNET)
- Laurence Schuler (ADNET)
Advisor
- Peter H. Jacobs (NASA/GSFC)
Datasets used in this visualization
GISTEMP (Collected with the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) sensor)
Note: While we identify the data sets used in these visualizations, we do not store any further details nor the data sets themselves on our site.
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The datasets present historical simulations with both natural and anthropogenic drivers for the period 1850-2014 and are paired with corresponding colormaps.Middle and Right:In the middle, synchronized multiplots for the same period track and visualize distinct drivers: natural (green), human (red), human and natural (blue), for each dataset. On the right, the Arctic Ice Area anomaly multiplot is followed by the visualization legends. As the timeline unfolds, we can see observations (in black for light background / in white for black background) starting to appear. These observations are used to evaluate the NASA GISS-E2.1-G model and while simulated data end in 2014, observations are plotted through 2018 (with the exception of Ocean Heat Content which is plotted through 2015).The historical timeline and the visualized maps show trends of stratospheric cooling, surface warming and significantly increased Arctic Ice Area loss, all of which are consistent with human forcing, especially rising greenhouse gas concentrations and ozone depletion. Therefore, it becomes apparent that the influence of human drivers is predominant in the climate system trends over the twentieth century and up to the present day.The NASA GISS-E2.1 contributions to CMIP6 and its evaluation with observations offer new knowledge and serve our society by improving our understanding of the processes that govern climate change and climate interactions with natural and human activities for the past and the future.Data Sources:NASA GISS ModelE-2-1-G for CMIP6: NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP. Earth System Grid Federation. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1400Observations:Mid Stratosphere Temperature (SSU-Ch2): NOAA-STARhttps://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/Lower Stratosphere Temperature (MSU-TLS): RSS http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperatureSurface Temperature: GISTEMP Team, 2021: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dataset accessed 2020-07-29 at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/Lenssen, N., G. Schmidt, J. Hansen, M. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029522Ocean Heat Content: NOAA NODC Pentadal 0-2000m Ocean Heat Content Time Series https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/basin_heat_data.htmlArctic Ice Area: Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. N. Meier, M. Savoie, and A. K. Windnagel. 2017, updated daily. Sea Ice Index, Version 3. Boulder, Colorado USA. 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Jan. 14th, 2021
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Normal temperatures are the average over the 30 year baseline period 1951-1980. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red and lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. THe Earth's topography is exaggerated by 10x. This frame sequence is the corresponding date range for each frame in the sequence. This 136 frame sequence of color-coded global temperature anomalies in robinson projection display a progression of changing global surface temperatures anomalies in Fahrenheit. The first frame in this sequence represents the data from 1880-1884. The second frame represents 1881-1885, ...and the last frame represents 2016-2020. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red and lower than normal are shown in blue. Normal temperatures are the average over the 30 year baseline period 1951-1980. Degrees Fahrenheit Colorbar Degrees Celsius Colorbar This frame sequence of color-coded global temperature anomalies in degrees celsius is designed to be displayed on the Science on a Sphere projection system. Each image represents a unique 5 year rolling time period with no fades between datasets. Frame 1884 represents data from 1880-1884, frame 1885 represents data from 1881-1885,... frame 2020 represents data from 2016-2020. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red and lower than normal are shown in blue. Normal temperatures are the average over the 30 year baseline period 1951-1980. Degrees Celsius horizontal colorbar 2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis ShowsEarth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA. Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.“The last seven years have been the warmest seven years on record, typifying the ongoing and dramatic warming trend,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important – the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken.”A Warming, Changing WorldTracking global temperature trends provides a critical indicator of the impact of human activities – specifically, greenhouse gas emissions – on our planet. Earth's average temperature has risen more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century. Rising temperatures are causing phenomena such as loss of sea ice and ice sheet mass, sea level rise, longer and more intense heat waves, and shifts in plant and animal habitats. Understanding such long-term climate trends is essential for the safety and quality of human life, allowing humans to adapt to the changing environment in ways such as planting different crops, managing our water resources and preparing for extreme weather events.Land, Sea, Air and SpaceNASA’s analysis incorporates surface temperature measurements from more than 26,000 weather stations and thousands of ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures. These raw measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the conclusions if not taken into account. The result of these calculations is an estimate of the global average temperature difference from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.NASA measures Earth's vital signs from land, air, and space with a fleet of satellites, as well as airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. The satellite surface temperature record from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aura satellite confirms the GISTEMP results of the past seven years being the warmest on record. Satellite measurements of air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea levels, as well as other space-based observations, also reflect a warming, changing world. The agency develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. NASA shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet. NASA’s full surface temperature data set – and the complete methodology used to make the temperature calculation – are available at: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistempGISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.For more information about NASA’s Earth science missions, visit: https://www.nasa.gov/earth Related pages
Climate Change Could Affect Global Agriculture within 10 Years
Nov. 1st, 2021
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Shifting Distribution of Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Anomalies, 1951-2011
Aug. 4th, 2012
Read moreAnimated bell curveThis video is also available on our YouTube channel. This bell curve graph shows how the distribution of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature anomalies has shifted toward an increase in hot summers. The seasonal mean temperature for the entire base period of 1951-1980 is plotted at the top of the bell curve. Decreasing in frequency to the right are what are defined as "hot" anomalies (between 1 and 2 standard deviations from the norm), "very hot" anomalies (between 2 and 3 standard deviations) and "extremely hot" anomalies (greater than 3 standard deviations). The anomalies fall off to the left in mirror-image categories of "cold, "very cold" and "extremely cold." The range between the .43 and -.43 standard deviation marks represent "normal" temperatures. As the graph moves forward in time, the bell curve shifts to the right, representing an increase in the frequency of the various hot anomalies. It also gets wider and shorter, representing a wider range of temperature extremes. As the graph moves beyond 1980, the temperatures are still compared to the seasonal mean of the 1951-1980 base period, so that as it reaches the 21st century, there is a far greater frequency of temperatures that once fell 3 standard deviations beyond the mean. As the graphic indicates, each bell curve shown through the time series represents the distribution of anomalies over an 11-year period. Related pages