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An El Nino is one of the most extreme short-term climate 

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change events on the planet. It can influence weather patterns, 

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alter the path of storms, cause severe floods, and even disrupt 

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marine ecosystems. But by feeding satellite and other types

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of data into computer models, we can predict when an El Nino is coming

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and even see the evolution of its unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific.

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Over a period of months, pools of warm water

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migrate from the western Pacific to the coast of South America.

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The warm water travels along the equator, covering a distance roughly 

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one-third the circumference of the Earth. 

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If we look below the surface, we see this water forms a thick layer reaching 

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depths of up to 1,000 feet. By December, the water starts

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to pile up along the coast of South America, which has potentially serious consequences

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for local fisheries. In 1998, 

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the arrival of El Nino's warm waters off the coast of Peru triggered a sharp 

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decline in marine plant life, called phytoplankton. These tiny

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organisms make up the base of the marine food web. As a result, 

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fish catch that season dwindled, causing millions of dollars in losses to the fishing industry.

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Even though this year's El Nino is the strongest on record, 

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ocean temperatures off the coast of South America are actually colder than they were 

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in 1998. Which is good for phytoplankton and for fisheries.

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Our latest models show temperatures in the Pacific are cooling, 

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suggesting we'll see a transition back to more normal conditions in summer.

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